Both Notre Dame and Florida State head into the ACC championship having fended off two worthy challengers in Duke and Louisville (respectively). The top two seeds will face off in Greensboro in the deciding game of the ACC Tournament. Each team has numerous All-ACC players. Both also come in with impressive win streaks and the burden of historic seasons upon them. It projects to be one of the best games of the tournament.
Key Players for FSU:
1. Adut Bulgak (C) – 12.9 Points Per Game, 9.9 Rebounds Per Game, 1.6 Blocks Per Game. It was evident Saturday what happens to FSU when it isn’t dominating the boards and having a consistent threat down low. For as good as the guard unit is, the Seminoles absolutely need Bulgak to force attention from Notre Dame. She will also be the last line of defense for the basket and have to perform admirably in this respect. Many of Notre Dame’s players survive off points in the paint — something that Bulgak will need to limit.
2. Ivey Slaughter (F) – 11.2 Points Per Game, 6.3 Rebounds Per Game, 1.4 Steals Per Game. If there was ever a game for Slaughter to excel in, it is this one. Slaughter and Shakayla Thomas will most likely be matched up against Notre Dame forward Brianna Turner, a first team All-ACC selection. Slaughter has the experience edge over Turner, and that’s why she’ll need to make her presence known. If she can frustrate Turner and force turnovers while providing steady scoring, it eliminates one of Notre Dame’s biggest threats. Her performance against Louisville is encouraging in this respect.
3. Sue Semrau (HC). It’s a cop-out, but the key to FSU winning truly is Semrau. Florida State will be facing a team with equal or more talent — something that has not happened in many games. We witnessed some of the brilliance of Semrau on Saturday when she understood that Shakayla Thomas was hot and drew up plays just for her. It was just what the Seminoles ordered, as they broke a cold streak late in the game and pulled ahead of a surging Louisville team. There’s a reason that Semrau is the ACC Coach of the Year, and it was clear as day against Louisville.
Key Players for Notre Dame:
1. Jewell Loyd (G) – 20.6 Points Per Game, 5.3 Rebounds Per Game, 3.2 Assists Per Game. Loyd is the best player in the ACC, bar none. Loyd won the ACC Player of the Year and is in serious contention for National Player of the Year, and it’s not hard to see why. Loyd is as dynamic an offensive threat as anyone else in basketball. The question is not one of “can they stop her from scoring?” but instead “how much will she score?”. Everything that Notre Dame runs goes through Loyd, and barring an exceptional performance by FSU’s guards, she will be the high scorer in the game.
2. Brianna Turner (F) – 14.0 Points Per Game, 7.8 Rebounds Per Game, 2.4 Blocks Per Game. Turner excelled as a freshman for the Fighting Irish, earning a spot on the ACC All-Freshman team and the conference’s first team. She leads the team with an absurd .671 field goal percentage, largely because she has already developed a feel for her post game. While she had a good game against Florida State earlier in the season, postseason play is completely different. Turner will need to once again figure out a way to avoid the turnovers.
3. Lindsay Allen (G) – 10.0 Points Per Game, 5.2 Assists Per Game, .546 Field Goal Percentage. Allen is an under-the-surface threat for Notre Dame in that she has all the tools as Loyd, but is not as polished. The Seminoles know how good she can be though, as she scored 18 points to go along with 8 assists the last time she faced FSU. If FSU overplays Loyd and lets Allen do her thing, it could make just as much of an impact. Allen is a great player in her own rights and both Maegan Conwright or Leticia Romero will have their hands full.
The last time these two teams faced off, Notre Dame edged out the Seminoles by six points. It was as close a game as the score indicates, considering that FSU led for 26 minutes in the match-up. Allen and Loyd came alive in the second half and eventually propelled the Fighting Irish to victory.
Ultimately the game will come down to which team is able to slow the other. It is encouraging for FSU that Notre Dame is not unbeatable and certainly not impervious.
On Saturday, the Fighting Irish scored 55 points against Duke — well below their season average of around 82 points-per-game. On the other hand, one of FSU’s biggest fears came to light Saturday when Louisville surged back in the second half thanks to points off turnovers. Louisville was capitalizing much more on the Seminoles’ mishaps than previous teams and it was what got the Cardinals back into the game. Against fast-paced teams like Notre Dame, such mistakes are magnified. Players like Loyd and Allen will thrive off of turnovers and could throw a wrench in FSU’s game plan if Romero and company are not careful with the ball.
Prediction: It’s always hard to make a prediction when both of the teams playing are equal in talent. Realistically, the game is a coin flip that could entirely depend on which team gets the last bucket. The deciding factor is which team can limit the mistakes and prevent its opponent from getting easy points. Right now, it appears that Notre Dame is better suited to do that. Expect a close game for 36 minutes, but for the mistakes to build up for the Seminoles and ultimately cause them to fall short of an ACC title. 64-56 Notre Dame.
