It was survive and advance for Florida State as the Seminoles eeked out a narrow victory over Arizona State on Friday night. In what was a combination of extremely suspect officiating, rare cold streaks, and surprising mental lapses, FSU squeaked out a 66-65 win in Greensboro. Leticia Romero took over for the Seminoles with a career-high 21 points, including the deciding jump-shot with under 30 seconds left in the game to put the ‘Noles ahead, 66-62.
The same could honestly be said for the Gamecocks as well. South Carolina enters Sunday’s Elite 8 match-up with FSU after a thrilling 67-65 win over the neighboring North Carolina Tar Heels. After trailing late in the game, South Carolina’s Tiffany Mitchell drove in and scored the game-winning basket with under five seconds left. The Seminoles and Gamecocks are the top two seeds in the Greensboro Region.
Key Storylines for FSU:
1. How effective will Romero be? – Leticia Romero once again showed everyone why FSU was so eager to have her even after the whole transfer fiasco. She is arguably the most well-rounded guard in the FSU backcourt and gives the ‘Noles a spark whenever they need one. If FSU wants to pull out a win versus the top-seeded Gamecocks, she will need another performance like the 21-point, 4-rebound, 4-assist, 4-steal effort from Friday. South Carolina has a very talented guard unit that is anchored by leading scorer Tiffany Mitchell, meaning Romero will have to figure out a way to show her offensive abilities without turning the ball over.
2. Can Shakayla Thomas stay out of foul trouble? – Thomas has really come into her own in this year’s tournament. She has illustrated why she is so hard to defend and just how valuable her physicality can be for teams that attempt to out-rebound the Seminoles. The issue has been Thomas being overly physical and picking up cheap fouls. Thomas has now been in foul trouble the past two games with a good portion of time left to play. Against a great squad like South Carolina, such problems could spell doom. Thomas must find the balance between physical enough to win her match-up and not physical enough to get fouls called.
3. Can FSU dominate the paint? – South Carolina only has two losses on the season: One to Kentucky and the other to Connecticut. Both losses occurred because South Carolina was bossed around in the paint and let up tons of points around the basket. This translated to 40 points in the paint for Connecticut and 24 for Kentucky. Adut Bulgak is capable of scoring and seems to be on the upswing in the tournament, while Thomas and Maegan Conwright both do great work by slashing to the basket or fighting for put-backs. The Gamecocks don’t have many losses, but the two that did occur should be examined closely. Strong performances inside can carry the Seminoles to victory.
Key Storylines for South Carolina:
1. Will Tiffany Mitchell continue her hot streak? – Mitchell has been regarded as the best player for South Carolina for the past two tournament games. She has shown an ability to both distribute the ball and score at a good pace. Not only does she shoot 42 percent from 3-point land, but she shoots near 50 percent overall. While she isn’t a volume scorer, her efficiency is what keeps the South Carolina offense running so smoothly. If Conwright and Romero lock her up, South Carolina loses one of the most important cogs in the machine. It’ll be interesting to see how she deals with the talent FSU possesses.
2. How will Coates perform against Bulgak? – It is most likely that the Gamecocks will put Alaina Coates on Bulgak for most of the game, given that they know what she can do inside. If fans will remember back to the Florida Gulf Coast game, the strategy was to collapse on Bulgak down low with guards and try to force her to handle the ball. It was effective for about one half until Bulgak started going up more quickly. South Carolina does not want this to happen, so it’ll probably look to give Coates some time against her in order to force her to go one-on-one and beat someone her size.
3. Does South Carolina attack from 3-point? – While solely dedicating your offense to 3-pointers is a poor strategy against Florida State, it can really hurt the Seminoles if they’re focused on controlling the paint. Arizona State shot 41 percent from behind the arc against FSU, and it was a large reason the game was so close at the end. The Sun Devils hit crucial shot after crucial shot as time began to wind down, halting the FSU momentum and forcing them to regroup as a defensive unit. The Gamecocks have attempted 35 3-point shots the past two games and it has served them well. This aspect could be the key to beating Florida State, should they be unable to keep South Carolina’s percentage below a certain mark.
Prediction: Both teams better be ready for a second straight nail-biter. They have similar styles of play, similar statistical rankings, and around the same amount of talent. The more one looks at the match-up, the more apparent it becomes that this game is likely to be decided by who does the “little” things the best — areas like free throws, turnovers, fouls, etc. Statistically, South Carolina has the slight edge, but pretty much anyone who knows a decent amount about both squads would say that this is a coin flip. However, FSU’s free throw/layup troubles against Arizona State nearly caused an implosion for them and are cause for concern. 67-63, South Carolina.
