Florida State enters Friday’s match-up after an impressive win over Florida Gulf Coast in the Tucker Center. The Seminoles dominated in almost every facet of the game and took down a top 20 team by denying its strengths and figuring out the perfect game plan to beat them. Arizona State comes in with basically the opposite story: The Sun Devils rallied from a 16-point deficit versus Arkansas-Little Rock to earn a three-point win. Bear in mind that ASU is a 3-seed while UALR was an 11-seed. Not many were impressed by the Sun Devils’ victory.
However, that was then and this is now and Sue Semrau’s Seminoles won’t be taking Arizona State lightly when the teams meet in Greensboro.
Key Storylines for FSU:
1. How will FSU deal with ASU’s balance? – The past few games Florida State has played have come against teams that rely heavily on a single player. This doesn’t seem to be the case with the Sun Devils. Their top three scorers, Sophie Brunner, Katie Hempen and Promise Amukamara, all average around 11 points-per-game, while their next three top scorers, Elisha Davis, Quinn Dornstauder and Kelsey Moos all score around 7 points-per-game. Arizona State doesn’t seem to have one fantastic facet like FGCU did with its 3-point shooting, so FSU can’t just focus on one aspect.
2. What will Shakayla Thomas’ role be? – Sue Semrau continues to show why she was named the ACC Coach of the Year. In a game where it was expected that Ivey Slaughter would get the main focus, she put Thomas in and watched her dominate. Semrau recognized that the Eagles had absolutely no one who could match Thomas’ physicality and pure talent. She finished with 12 points and 4 rebounds, and it leads one to wonder how she will be used in this game. Arizona State’s top scorer is Brunner, who plays the forward position. It should be an interesting sight to see those two match up.
3. Can FSU keep momentum without a home crowd? – This is less of a problem than the other two, but it is still worth noting. All four of the Seminoles’ losses this season came away from Tallahassee, with one of those being in the ACC final in Greensboro. Thankfully, the Sun Devils aren’t Notre Dame, but they can still take advantage of an FSU cold streak much more than previous opponents could. Monday’s game against the Eagles featured one of the loudest crowds in FSU history, which was surely a factor in helping the Seminoles jump out to big lead. That won’t be available against the Sun Devils.
Key Storylines for Arizona State:
1. How will ASU get around the FSU defense? – While balance is the desired trait for any offense, it doesn’t work when the defense is just as balanced as you are. This seems to be the case with the Seminoles, who have noticeably better stats on the defensive end than the Sun Devils. Arizona State has the 103rd ranked scoring offense, while FSU has the 26th ranked scoring defense. If the Sun Devils don’t have a player that can take over when the going gets tough, FSU will pounce and create a margin too big for the offense to recover from. If FSU shows up big on defense, Arizona State will crumble.
2. Can the Sun Devils rebound enough? – When looking at the numbers, this aspect shouldn’t even be close. The Seminoles have the third best margin in the country at 12.7 while the Sun Devils have the 42nd best at 5.2. Arizona State does not seem to have anyone that can physically match Adut Bulgak either, with their tallest players being a freshman that only averages about six minutes a game and a sophomore that has only started five games. Bulgak finally got into a rhythm against FGCU, so the Sun Devils better prepare for her to come out strong and try to replicate her performance.
3. Can Arizona State slow down FSU’s offense? – This issue is one of the similarities between the two teams, though it might be more troubling for Arizona State. Whereas the Sun Devils have three players averaging in double-digits scoring, FSU now has five in Bulgak, Leticia Romero, Maegan Conwright, Slaughter, and Thomas. A team that both dominates the boards and is better on offense could spell trouble for Arizona State. Ultimately, it might benefit the Sun Devils to just let Bulgak get hers while defending the Seminoles’ guards with extra focus.
Prediction: A contest between a 2 and 3 seed should be close. It should be a grind it out contest where the winner isn’t decided until the last shot. But when looking at both the stat sheet and recent results, there’s almost no area where FSU has a disadvantage. In order for Arizona State to win, it would have to play a flawless game and then some. It’s hard to see that happening with a team as talented as Florida State. The Seminoles quickly get over the lack of home court advantage and impress everybody once more on their way to the Elite 8. 68-54, Seminoles.
