After a dominating 91-49 performance against the Alabama State Hornets, Florida State hopes to impress the home crowd once more on Monday night against in-state foe, Florida Gulf Coast. Shakayla Thomas posted a great stat-line of 17 points, 7 rebounds, and 2 steals while Leticia Romero came close to a triple-double with 14 points, 10 assists, and 8 rebounds in the previous contest as the Seminoles moved past the round of 64 for a second straight season.
For Florida Gulf Coast, there is a statement to be made that it can play with tougher competition. The Eagles are 31-2 on the season and have not lost since November. They came into the tournament ranked only 20th, and many feel the Eagles have been disrespected. Letting Oklahoma State stay around for most of the game on Saturday didn’t alleviate those concerns.
Key Storylines for FSU
1. How will FSU stop the 3-point shot? – The Eagles shoot the third most 3-pointers a game with 9.7 per match-up. They have two players — Whitney Knight and Taylor Gradinjan — who have shot more than 100 3-pointers this season and still maintain above a 40 percent rate from deep. FSU’s guards will have to defend the perimeter especially well this game if they want to cripple the Eagles’ offense. Maegan Conwright and Romero will each have their hands full trying to disrupt the well-oiled machine that FGCU has going.
2. Can FSU win the turnover battle? – Florida Gulf Coast is fourth in the nation in turnover margin at +7.24. While the raw numbers aren’t overly special, the fact that it can keep such a good ratio should be noticed by the Seminoles. Romero and others played a near flawless game against Alabama State regarding turnovers. If the ‘Noles can replicate Saturday’s performance, they should have no trouble denying FGCU one of its biggest strengths.
3. Will Shakayla Thomas stay consistent? – It was known for a while that Thomas splitting time with Ivey Slaughter meant that fans might not see the same skill-set every game. While Thomas had an outstanding game against the Hornets, Slaughter is usually the one Coach Sue Semrau looks to for defensive prowess. If FSU wants to maintain its top-50 3-point defense against the Eagles, it might need to let Thomas see the bench a bit more. How this will effect her play in potential coming games, if at all, remains to be seen.
Key Storylines for FGCU
1. What happens when the shots aren’t falling? – Live by the three, die by the three. It’s a saying that’s been around ever since the 3-point line was created, and it still holds true to this day. FSU holds opposing teams to 28 percent from deep, well below the Eagles’ season average of 35 percent. The Eagles have no post presence and seem to be solely reliant on their outside shots. If they go on a cold streak, it could get ugly.
2. Will anyone stop Bulgak? – The Eagles might just be the team that allows FSU center Adut Bulgak to show everyone what she can do in the tournament. With seemingly no one to contest her, Bulgak will almost certainly have a field day with rebounding and post points. The tallest player on FGCU’s roster is 6’3″, and it’s the team’s best guard in Whitney Knight. If Florida Gulf Coast goes cold and can’t find another source of scoring, it will be seriously gashed in the paint.
3. How will the Eagles deal with the home crowd? – While FGCU is still in Florida, the game is still being held in the Tucker Civic Center. The crowd is predominantly pro-Seminoles and gives FSU yet another advantage. Even the ‘Noles first game in the NCAA Tournament against an outmatched team brought out a great crowd, qualifying as the best attendance this season. If FSU jumps out ahead and gets on a roll, it makes it that much harder for the Eagles to mentally get back in the game.
Prediction: It’s always hard to predict final scores when one team shoots so many threes. While the game could be won in a dominant fashion, the score could be within 10 points due to the nature of the Florida Gulf Coast offense. Likewise, FSU could maintain a lead but never be able to put FGCU away. Teams that get hot from deep have a tendency to roar back in games with impressive consistency. Thankfully for the Seminoles, they have an experienced and talented backcourt that should be able to keep the Eagles grounded for most of the game. 82-60, Seminoles advance to the Sweet 16.
