Round Projections for Seminoles Entering the Draft (Pre-Combine)

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In a not-so-surprising development, FSU leads the nation with 12 NFL Combine invitees for 2015. The last three years have seen 22 Seminole football players drafted into the NFL, including four taken in the first round. In this time-frame, every position except quarterback, tight end, and offensive guard has been drafted out of FSU. Those three positions have a good chance of being accounted for this year. It indeed appears that Doak Campbell Stadium has once again become a breeding ground for future college stars and pros alike.

Obviously some projections will be easier than others (quarterback, anybody?) but it will be interesting to see how the draft process affects some of these guys. Some will undoubtedly rise due to their physical abilities being on display, while others might fall due to closer scrutiny. Either way, FSU fans can expect to hear their school’s name called multiple times come draft day.

Jameis Winston (QB) – First Round

There’s not much to discuss about this prediction. Winston is the most pro-ready of all the quarterback prospects in this year’s draft. He’s got the physical tools (size, arm strength) and football IQ to succeed in the league. The only question for teams will be his level of maturity and whether or not they want to take a risk on him. Reasonable people can come to different conclusions, though it is still agreed that the issue is present.

Expect Winston to go to either the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, St. Louis Rams, or New York Jets. There’s an extremely small chance he slides out of the top 10.

Ronald Darby (CB) – First to Second Round

Darby is one of those players that teams will really fall in love with come draft time. The joke is that there doesn’t exist a highlight mixtape for him after his freshman year — largely because teams did not throw in his direction.

Physically, Darby has almost everything a team wants in a cornerback. He might be slightly undersized (official measurement is 5’11”, but might be fudged a bit) but everything else is top-notch. His speed is what will attract a lot of suitors, as he has been clocked at running a 4.3 40-yard dash and he is able to translate that straight line speed into fluid hip movements. Darby might not be the strongest corner in the draft, but he certainly puts himself in position to make critical tackles. The biggest knock on him from a physical standpoint is probably concerns around if he can really engage with stronger wide receivers on the next level.

Once teams really do start watching tape, they’ll see how Darby is almost never out of place on the field. He has great instincts as to where a play will develop, and his quick reaction is going to impress scouts. This is the same player that, until the Miami game, had not had a touchdown thrown on him since his freshman season. However, the tape will also reveal the one foil that has frustrated FSU fans and coaches alike: His inability to hold on to the ball. Darby has had only two interceptions in his three-year career, with both of those coming in his sophomore season. The mixtape link in the previous paragraph has more demonstrations of this problem, as Darby seems to inexplicably drop or lose the football on surefire interceptions. Thankfully for Darby, this can be worked out with some more training. NFL teams won’t mind having to do a bit of polishing.

P.J. Williams (CB) – First to Second Round

If Darby is going to shoot up draft boards for his physical attributes, Williams will do so even more. His highlight tapes are a thing of beauty, as he shows the ability to make big stops in both run and pass defense (most of the time).

It’s not hard to see why. Williams’ list of athletic feats speak for themselves. He runs a sub 4.4 40-yard dash, records a 11’1″ standing broad jump, has a great vertical, and plays very physical coverage. Guys like Richard Sherman have shown how valuable it is to have someone able to jam opposing receivers at the line, and Williams’ knack for doing so will endear him to teams looking for a shutdown corner. Williams can be a huge help in the running game and his ability to sniff out a play is going to be impressive  to those watching his tape.

That being said, he has shown serious inconsistency regarding his coverage skills. While he usually excels in man coverage, his ability to detect the ball in the air and prevent a catch has been called into question. Williams struggles with ball skills and the Syracuse game had a particularly egregious example of this problem. For someone so athletically gifted, he doesn’t seem to really know how to use his body to gain leverage in these types of situations. The way to beat his coverage was to make him go vertical. In a league with guys like Calvin Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald and Julio Jones, it will be essential for him to fix this part of his game.

Of the 12 FSU players invited to the combine, Williams will probably benefit the second most. He has all the tools to be a serious No. 1 corner and if he fixes his main negative, he will show why he deserved to be highly selected.

Bobby Hart (G) – Sixth to Undrafted

In the mess that was FSU’s offensive line, Hart was unable to develop as many expected he would. At the beginning of August, he was only 20 years old and had as high a ceiling as anybody on the offensive line. His selection of Honorable Mention All-ACC in 2013 had many hopeful he would continue to progress.

Hart’s issues in 2014 seemed to be the same as 2013. His run-blocking at tackle was fairly good and much like the rest of the line, it got better as the season went on. But his pass protection continued to be his biggest downside. He often got bullied up front and let pressure get to the quarterback far too soon. He had a limited range of movement and defensive ends were often able to get past him with simple moves. One piece of hope for Hart is that his duties in the NFL as a guard will be much different than his duties as a tackle. Add in his young age and it’s not out of the realm of possibilities that Hart gets picked in the late rounds.

If he can develop into the first round guard like everyone expected, Hart could make a team very happy with their investment. As of right now, don’t expect to hear his name for a while.

Rashad Greene (WR) – Second to Fourth Round

Consistency, while not necessarily the most important trait, can really set some prospects apart from their peers. It shows a solid work ethic and ability to transfer film room study to the field. It’s hard to find another more important aspect to Greene’s game than this.

He probably won’t have the best numbers at the combine or leap any prospects currently ahead of him, but Greene has all the necessary tools to be a good slot receiver. While he possesses pretty good straight line speed (4.5 40-yard dash), his quickness/shiftiness is what really helps him make the huge plays he is known for. Look at how he is able to turn a a 5-yard gain into a 15-yard gain, or how he is able to immediately hit the ground running after a catch to pick up extra yardage. Without some of his late game heroics, the Seminoles would not have made the playoffs, and maybe not even the ACC Championship.

Route running seems natural to Greene, and teams will love his ability to just pick up a playbook and learn. He was by far the team’s best route runner over the past four years. The many records he holds for FSU are a testament to that. The problem for Greene, like many receivers, is that there are many extremely talented players in front of him. Athletically (and build-wise), Rashad Greene can’t replicate Amari Cooper or Kevin White. Hence why it’s much more likely to hear his name in the second or third rounds. But whatever team drafts him will most likely get a fantastic contributor and starter.

Tre’ Jackson (G) – Third to Fourth Round

At the beginning of the season, Tre’ Jackson was expected to be the best lineman on the team and an eventual first round pick. He accomplished half of those expectations.

There’s really been very little criticism about Jackson’s stature or build — some have pointed out that he’s a bit sluggish with his feet, but that is an issue that can be fixed with more conditioning or training. As of now Jackson has the perfect measurements of an NFL guard coming in at 6’4″ and 330 pounds. That alone will get him looks from various teams needing an eventual starter or depth on the line.

When it comes to playing the actual game, Jackson was able to put that weight to good use. He is very good at run-blocking and using his sheer power to move guys out of the way. Every once in a while he’s just too big to get to a block in time, but that can once again be fixed with conditioning. Jackson struggles as a pass-blocker though, and this will be what knocks him from the first round and possibly the second. This play from the Rose Bowl stands out as Jackson was pretty much mauled by Arik Armstread. The upside is that Armstead is a predicted first-rounder and that Jackson was almost never beat this bad. Either way, Jackson is going to need to work on his technique. Pure strength will not serve him well in the league with as many talented defensive linemen as there are.

Ultimately it seems likely that someone will fall in love with his physical traits and draft him in the third. He’s a project, but he’s a worthy one.

Nick O’Leary (TE) – Second to Fourth Round

This year’s tight end class is fairly weak compared to previous years, which is something that O’Leary (and others) will probably benefit from. If an organization is looking for a tight end, there’s really only a few guys that stick out. O’Leary is one of them.

While FSU fans have become accustomed to O’Leary’s ability to have a real life hit stick, the fact of the matter is he will not be able to do that in the NFL. The defenders are too big, too fast, and too fundamentally sound. He has also basically filled out his body and him growing is pretty much out of the question. Luckily for O’Leary, not many teams are looking for freaks-of-nature at the tight end position. They are instead looking at his receiving ability and willingness to block, two things that he is certainly good at.

While O’Leary is not known for getting separation from defenders, his ability to get to the ball is a huge plus in his favor. Solid red zone threats can make or break a team, and O’Leary resembles that in a great way. Depending on the team that drafts him, O’Leary might be switched to the H-back position where he could probably thrive. Teams will look at the tape and love that he is an enthusiastic blocker who can hold his own for the most part. If an organization is looking for a more versatile tight end, he could reasonably fall the fourth round. If not, expect him to go in the second or third round.

Josue Matias (G) – Second to Third Round

The post about Tre’ Jackson above could switch around “run-block” and “pass-block” and reasonably fit Matias. Whereas Jackson is sluggish in pass protection, Matias needs to work on run-blocking if he wants to succeed in the NFL. Whereas Jackson can straight push guys out of the way when run-blocking, Matias rarely is able to be moved when protecting the quarterback.

Technique-wise, Matias is very sound. He’s fast off the snap and grounds himself while firmly centering his weight. He gets his arms up at a good length and can go on a swivel if he needs to. There are few flaws in this regard and any negatives are either minor or totally fixable.

When it comes to run-blocking however, (as mentioned) he does not have the power that his teammate has. He’s not really able to banish guys out of the lane and relies too much on first contact when doing so. With the league being so pass-heavy now, teams will probably like his strengths more than they worry about his weaknesses. His combine will probably confirm more of what is known, so don’t expect a radical change in perception. Matias seems like a solid pick and could potentially be the second guard taken off the board after Alabama’s Arie Kouandjio or LSU’s La’el Collins.

Eddie Goldman (DT) – First to Second Round

It really is amazing when one looks at the hype around Goldman at the beginning of the season compared to season’s end. There was not an FSU player that experienced a more meteoric rise in draft stock than Goldman, going from an interesting prospect to a top-tier defensive tackle.

A large part of that was Goldman’s clear and present danger to running backs across the country. He almost always initiated the contact with his blocker and pushed them back with his all-around fantastic strength. The Clemson game was widely regarded as his best performance, and his actions in the game will go down in the pantheon of Seminole defensive performances. Look at how he is able to make the play on Clemson’s running back and force a fumble with one arm. If Goldman doesn’t burst through the line and affect the ball carrier in this short yardage situation, FSU might not have come out with a victory. He is rarely fooled by runners and sticks to his instincts when making plays.

The big reason Goldman might fall to the second round is his lack of pass-rushing ability. While defensive tackles aren’t known for having gaudy sack numbers, it’s more of Goldman’s inability to show the moves necessary to get to the quarterback. Many will point out that he had the most sacks on the team, but that’s more indicative of FSU’s inability to create a consistent pass-rush. He’s a run-stopper first and foremost with not much in the way of getting to the passer. Ultimately this might deter some teams from picking him up with their first round selection.

Mario Edwards Jr. (DE) – First to Second Round

Edwards is a very interesting (and difficult) player to project in the draft. He’s a 3-4 defensive end, there’s no doubt about that. He possesses a mixed bag of traits, some great and some bad, that will have a lot of teams wondering what they value from a player more.

The good news is that Edwards has the potential to be a dominant player and he showed that multiple times. The national championship versus Auburn was probably his best game of the season and was a large reason for the hype coming into this past year. He showed a relentless pursuit of Nick Marshall, preventing him from utilizing his most dangerous skill and overall being a hound that sniffed out Auburn’s game plan. When he latches on to a runner, they almost never get away from him. Some analysts have pointed out his low sack numbers as a potential negative, but it’s important to realize that he was never really asked to rush the passer in FSU’s system. He’s a containment guy and his absurd ability to blow up the read option (as evidenced during the Auburn game) speaks volumes about his instincts.

The bad news is that his production never actually matched his ability. While the sack numbers aren’t too concerning, his inability to take “the next step” has many scouts wondering if he has the motivation to improve. Edwards will sometimes take plays off or show poor technique out of nowhere. It will be quite the conundrum for many scouts to take a look at his tape and then his combine performance and decide which one they find more valuable.

If there’s one big reason he’ll go in the first round, it is almost certainly his mix of agility and power. There’s little chance that a team passes on him and his potential in the second round.

Cameron Erving (C/G/T) – First to Second Round

Originally a left tackle at the beginning of the year, Erving was shuffled over to center after FSU realized that the offensive line it had in place was not producing. Once this change occurred, it became clear that Erving would indeed benefit more from playing on the inside of the line. When a player can play all three positions along the front, it can be assured that some team will draft him early.

As a center prospect, Erving is a first-rounder. He’s able to quickly get his hands up and his feet in place for both the run and pass-block. Erving lacks the true power that some linemen have, but is rarely able to be pushed into the backfield by defenders. Despite his 6’6″ and 308 pound frame, he shows above average athleticism and quickness in his game. Every few plays he might go lazy with his technique but generally shows a great feel for the position.

As a guard or tackle, Erving is most likely a second-rounder. While his form is good and he has great size, Erving did get beat by some good defensive linemen (Vic Beasley from Clemson being the most notable). He wasn’t able to force many guys out of the way like similar players are expected to do. That being said, he is still a good prospect in this regard and would almost certainly get picked up by the end of the second round.

While he is raw for the center position, his potential and evident production during the year will likely be enough to entice a team into spending their first round pick on him. If not, he still possesses a good versatility that could come in handy should injuries strike. He’s simply too good of a prospect to pass up on in the second.

Karlos Williams (RB) – Sixth to Undrafted

Williams is a case of a player that has the potential to be a higher pick, but extenuating circumstances (better prospects in front, allegations) will knock him from a more deserving spot.

As a safety-to-running back convert, Williams has explosion and toughness rarely seen in college running backs. The expression “always falls forward” is especially relevant with Karlos, who is unafraid to take a hit. His speed will be highly regarded by those looking for a special teams impact player — Williams has a second gear when running and will probably run a 4.3 to 4.4 40-yard dash at the combine. Without this burst, the Seminoles might not get the momentum in the national championship, nor would they have beat Clemson when Williams spotted an abandoned side of the field. His combine performance, if really exceptional, could vault him out of the predicted range.

Athleticism isn’t everything however. Since he was only recently a running back, he still has trouble spotting an open hole and sometimes runs right into his linemen rather than looking for the opening. Indecisiveness at the line of scrimmage is a big reason for this and it is why Williams will probably not be drafted by a team immediately looking for a No. 1 or 2 back. There are quite simply prospects that project better as running backs, despite their athleticism not coming near Williams’. Beyond that, Williams was accused of domestic violence earlier in the season, a topic that the NFL has been heavily scrutinized for ignoring. Even though no charges were brought, teams will be looked at very closely for such incidents. This risk might be enough to push Williams into free agent territory. It remains to be seen how the league and its teams will respond to this issue.

Draft day is always a spectacle and every year, something happens that no one expects. It will be interesting to see where FSU’s players get drafted and figure out how they will fit into their new destination. Regardless of their failure or success, the Florida State football program will retain a legacy of turning college players into pros and should all 12 be selected, it would best a school-record set just two years ago.

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