The start of the 2015 season is now just more than a week away as Florida State hopes to notch its fourth straight top-10 finish and fourth straight ACC title. The preseason rankings have the Seminoles eighth in the Amway Coaches Poll and 10th in the AP Poll, but history has shown the preseason polls to be a poor indicator of final results — perhaps even more so when it comes to FSU.
It’s true that Florida State was preseason No. 1 when it won its first two national championships. But since going wire-to-wire with the top spot in 1999, the Seminoles have finished worse than their preseason ranking 11 times in 15 years and better just four times.
FSU Starts and Finishes Since 2000
| Year | AP Preseason Ranking | AP Final Ranking | Coaches Preseason Ranking | Coaches Final Ranking |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2000 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 4 |
| 2001 | 6 | 15 | 5 | 15 |
| 2002 | 3 | 21 | 4 | 23 |
| 2003 | 13 | 11 | 11 | 10 |
| 2004 | 4 | 15 | 6 | 14 |
| 2005 | 14 | 22 | 12 | 22 |
| 2006 | 11 | N/A | 10 | N/A |
| 2007 | 19 | N/A | 21 | N/A |
| 2008 | N/A | 21 | N/A | 23 |
| 2009 | 18 | N/A | 19 | N/A |
| 2010 | 20 | 17 | 20 | 16 |
| 2011 | 6 | 23 | 5 | 23 |
| 2012 | 7 | 10 | 7 | 8 |
| 2013 | 11 | 1 | 12 | 1 |
| 2014 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 6 |
That doesn’t mean that FSU hasn’t had good years over the last 15 years, it just means the Seminoles fail to live up to their preseason ranking more often than not. The numbers however, are skewed since FSU tends to be ranked so highly. Since 2000, FSU has started the season ranked in the top 10 in the Coaches Poll on eight occasions, but have finished there just three times during those eight years.
Over the last three years, Florida State has boasted the best record in college football by going 39-3, but have still finished below its preseason ranking in two of those years. The 2013 season was the exception when the Seminoles began the year ranked 12th and went on to win the national championship.
Last season, Florida State had no chance to finish better than its preseason ranking since the Seminoles were ranked No. 1. Few would consider a 13-1 season, an ACC title and an appearance in the first college football playoff a disappointing campaign, but going by the polls, that would have been the case with anything shy of a second straight national championship.
For FSU fans, who insist into putting stock into the preseason rankings, there is good news. While the Seminoles have managed to finish better than their preseason ranking just four times in the last 15 years, two of those occasions have come since Jimbo Fisher took over as head coach in 2010.
Since 2000, Florida State has still managed to finish ranked 12 times despite the majority of that period being referred to by FSU fans as “the Lost Decade”. In 14 of the last 15 years, FSU began the year ranked and each time, it was in the top 20.
Coincidentally, the only season where the Seminoles didn’t begin the year ranked was one of the four where FSU had a better finish than its preseason ranking. That year was 2008, when Florida State finished 9-4 and ranked 21st in the AP Poll and 23rd in the Coaches Poll.
Expectations for this upcoming season are varied among Florida State fans. Some feel that a return to the playoff is in play, others want 10 wins, some want to win the ACC while a few would just be happy to beat Miami and Florida. Regardless of what your expectations are, none of FSU’s accomplishments or perhaps a lack thereof this season, will have anything to do with either preseason poll.
