Florida State will look to start 6-0 for a third straight year on Saturday as the No. 11 Seminoles play host to Louisville. The Cardinals are off to a disappointing 2-3 start, but have been in every game so far this season. FSU rallied from a 21-0 deficit last season to top Louisville 42-31. As the Seminoles look to stay undefeated and move to 4-0 in conference play, the Noled Out staff gives you “Five Things”:
1. On Louisville
Mike Ferguson: Louisville is off to just a 2-3 start, but all indications are that the Cardinals are better than their record. Louisville’s losses to Auburn, Houston and Clemson have come by just a combined 14 points. Quarterback Lamar Jackson has provided a spark after an 0-3 start and the Louisville defense is yielding just 12 points-per-game over its last three contests.
Clint Eiland: The Bobby Petrino-led Cardinals are one of the most confusing teams in the ACC this year. Four out of their five games so far have ended with a final margin of seven points or less with the Cardinals being on the losing end of three of those. Louisville seems to have finally found its starting quarterback in freshman Lamar Jackson — a dual-threat who is more keen on running past a defense than throwing over one. Even so, the offense is towards the lower end of the FBS in most categories, which is why the Cardinals are anchored by a very talented defense that only gives up around 20 points-per-game.
Jon Marchant: Florida State hosts the Louisville Cardinals, who are 2-3, on Saturday. They are quarterbacked by the raw but do-everything Lamar Jackson. They rank sixth in rushing S&P+ and 83rd in passing. On defense, Louisville is stout, especially up front — a testament to the job Charlie Strong did before departing for Texas. It is 13th on defense — one spot behind the Seminoles. Louisville has had an extra bye week to prepare for FSU.
2. Players to Watch for FSU
Ferguson: I’m really looking forward to seeing what junior defensive end DeMarcus Walker can do in terms of getting pressure on Lamar Jackson. Coaches raved about Walker in the spring and that’s finally starting to translate on the field. Over the last two weeks, Walker has 3.5 sacks and a pair of forced fumbles. If the Seminoles can get in Jackson’s face, he is prone to make mistakes.
Eiland: Pass-rusher Jacob Pugh had some early season issues with keeping contain on mobile quarterbacks. Jackson is probably the most talented dual-threat the FSU defense will face so far, meaning Pugh will have to be more consistent on the edge to keep Jackson from gashing the Seminoles all game. There’s no doubt that the Seminoles have been getting better as the season goes on. Louisville has dangerous athletes that will test just how far the team has come.
Marchant: All eyes should be on running back Dalvin Cook. He is the best player on offense and FSU may need him to win every game.
3. Biggest Concern for FSU
Ferguson: The biggest concern for Florida State this week comes on defense and that’s stopping Lamar Jackson’s legs. Jackson has more than 400 yards rushing this season and is a burner in the open field. The defensive front for FSU will need to stay in its rushing lanes and not allow Jackson to get going in space. Guys like DeMarcus Walker, Jacob Pugh, Josh Sweat and Lorenzo Featherston will need to go a good job setting the edge.
Eiland: FSU’s performance against Wake Forest shows that this team is not immune from emotional swings before and after big rivalry games. An exciting win over Miami in prime time might leave FSU a bit hungover for its match-up with the Cardinals. Coming out flat against Louisville won’t have the same effects it did against Wake Forest. The Cardinals have a much better team.
Marchant: Turnovers!…and situational football. This figures to be a low-scoring affair and this game could be decided by the team that gains the most on the ground and/or the one who turns the ball over. Florida State is the only offense in the FBS to have zero turnovers this year. FSU also did poor maximizing scoring opportunities against Miami last week, keeping the ‘Canes in the game and eventually allowing them to take the lead. The Seminoles must score touchdowns when the opportunity arises, especially in a run-shortened game.
4. X-Factor for FSU
Ferguson: Florida State kicker Roberto Aguayo. Both teams have been involved in very close games this season and Saturday’s contest has the looks of one that could come down to a wire. Though he’s missed two kicks on the young season, Aguayo is a solid weapon for any program to have. Four of Louisville’s five games this season have been decided by seven points or less and FSU’s last two wins have come by a combined 13 points.
Eiland: The linebackers are going to have to perform at a better level than they have in the past two games. Terrance Smith’s ankle injury has prevented the Seminoles from putting their best possible unit out on the field, which has left the middle of the field open for passers. Louisville might be content to dink-and-dunk its way down field if its able to.
Marchant: The X-factor for this game is sophomore linebacker Ro’Derrick Hoskins. If senior Terrance Smith still can’t go, or even if he can, Hoskins is likely to get significant time. He will be key in stopping the Cardinal rushing attack.
5. FSU Wins If…
Ferguson: Florida State will start 6-0 for a third straight season if it can force Louisville’s Lamar Jackson to make plays with his arm. Jackson is far more dangerous as a runner and the Seminoles cannot allow for him to break contain. On offense, the Seminoles must continue to take care of the football and find ways to get Dalvin Cook the ball in open space.
Eiland: …the Seminoles can contain Jackson and prevent the Louisville offense from utilizing his mobility. FSU absolutely shut down Miami’s run offense with a talented Joseph Yearby, so one shouldn’t expect much different against the Cardinals. Taking away Jackson leaves an anemic offense that will be outscored by plenty if Cook is relatively healthy for FSU.
Marchant: Florida State will win if it can contain Lamar Jackson’s running ability. FSU is deep up front and this game will hinge on the front seven executing assignments and keeping Jackson in the pocket. Louisville runs Lamar Jackson as often as it passes so look for designed roll-outs off of play-action to counter FSU. How FSU’s linebackers play, especially in coverage, will be huge. This Florida State team is getting better every week but still young and the margin for error is small.
