Buy or Sell: Each Florida State Position Group

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The 2015 Florida State Seminoles are going to look a lot different than the 2014 Florida State Seminoles; that’s a given. With the way head coach Jimbo Fisher and company have been putting players in the NFL, the cycle is bound to catch up to the team every once in a while. There will always be talent as long the recruiting remains strong, but raw talent can’t replace experience, which is what gets lost when one has such a strong pipeline to the NFL. This reality will hit the Seminoles this year harder than it has in past years.

There’s maybe one position group next year that has not been affected by the attrition. Looking at this year’s draft, we see Florida State selections span across the field. Quarterback, running back, wide receiver, offensive line, defensive line, and defensive back were all groups that experienced some sort of departure.

However, this doesn’t mean that all of them will necessarily see a drop-off. In fact, at least a few of these positions have a mix of talent and experience that will hopefully shine through in the upcoming season. These positions will be labeled as a “Buy” and ones on the opposite side of the spectrum will have the “Sell” designation on them. Check out Noled Out’s positional breakdowns for a more comprehensive look at each group and the specific players in them.

Running Back: Buy

Even without Dalvin Cook, Florida State has two very talented players in Mario Pender and Jacques Patrick. Don’t forget that Pender was a blue chip recruit who was considered even better than Cook before he went down with an injury. He’s had his ups and downs at FSU, but if he is able to stay healthy, he could be one of the best running backs in the ACC by mid-season. Meanwhile, Jacques Patrick has been impressing everyone who’s seen him practice and he showed his potential in the spring game. If Cook returns to the team, the running back position becomes the strongest group for next season. Other guys like Freddie Stevenson and Jonathan Vickers will be there for depth, which could be an issue if the injury bug strikes, but it’s not too radical to say the Seminoles are in good hands with the backfield. Some will say that the potential loss of Cook means this group will take a step back in 2015. But from the way it looks on paper, any regression will not be due to the running backs.

Quarterback: Buy

Calling this group a “Buy” is not necessarily akin to saying that whoever starts under center will be as good as Jameis Winston. Instead, this specific ruling is saying the position will not crash and burn in dramatic fashion like some might expect. Everett Golson is the expected starter and it makes sense considering he has the most experience of any option the ‘Noles have by far. Behind him is Sean Maguire, who has shown he can step up to the plate when given the opportunity though his viability as a season-long starter has not been shown yet. Behind those two are freshmen J.J. Cosentino and Deondre Francois, who will almost certainly not see much time on the field. This rating is largely dependent on how Golson performs, so those who are a bit more pessimistic might see this position as a weakness. It could certainly turn out that way, but for now it’s hard to see an absolute free fall in production from the group.

Offensive Line: Sell

Offensive line is without a doubt one of the most frustrating positions to have youth step in and try to produce. Unfortunately, that is what Florida State must do after losing four of its five most talented linemen to the NFL. The only one returning is left tackle Roderick Johnson and he looks to be the one bright spot for next season. The left guard, center, right guard, and right tackle positions are all looking at any combination of Alec Eberle, Corey Martinez, Wilson Bell, Chad Mavety, Derrick Kelly and Kareem Are to succeed. While all these players are talented, they have almost no experience and will show growing pains throughout the year. As mentioned above: If there is a regression in the run game, it will most likely be on these guys.

Wide Receiver: Buy

The Seminoles lose record-setters in Rashad Greene and Nick O’Leary, and yet it looks like the wide receiver position won’t see that much of a drop-off. Two freshmen who worked their way into important roles last season were Travis Rudolph and Ermon Lane with a combined 822 yards and five touchdowns; both are returning and early signs from spring camp were very promising. Jesus Wilson is another familiar name that will remain in the slot this year after catching 42 passes for 527 yards and four touchdowns in 2014. The newcomers to the lineup include guys like George Campbell, Ja’Vonn Harrison, and Mavin Saunders, who have all been getting high marks since their spring game performances. At least one of those guys is expected to make huge strides, so expect breakout performances from younger guys like Rudolph and Lane had a season ago. As an added bonus, Kermit Whitfield is also returning, though it’s unsure what role he will have in the offense for 2015.

Defensive Line: Sell

This position group was one of the harder ones to determine, mainly because it all depends on if one thinks younger players can continue to develop. Players like DeMarcus Walker and Chris Casher showed enough promise that the pass-rushing might actually be improved from last season. But the inside of the line is going to have much more trouble replacing Eddie Goldman, the premiere run stopper who essentially won last season’s Clemson game by himself. Nile-Lawrence Stample and Derrick Mitchell Jr. are decent but neither have been game-changers for the Seminoles and each have had injury issues. Beyond that, there’s a mix of guys like Derrick Nnadi, Demarcus Christmas, and Keith Bryant on the inside and Rick Leonard, Lorenzo Featherston and Jacob Pugh on the outside. Don’t be surprised if the quarterback hurries and sacks go up while the run defense takes a big step back. This is one of those groups that could seriously emerge in the next couple of years, but it’s not looking like 2015 is that year.

Linebackers: Sell

If the analogy to a stock market is consistent, then the linebackers’ stock is about to enter the Great Depression. The two best players from the unit are Terrance Smith and Reggie Northrup, with the latter coming back from a major knee injury. Matthew Thomas made eight starts last season but was often injured and will likely be gone for half the season after shoulder surgery. After those three are options like Ro’Derrick Hoskins, converted safety Tyrell Lyons, true freshman Sh’Mar Kilby Lane, and Lorenzo Phillips, who still has to qualify. Delvin Purifoy is another name that could come up, but he suffered a serious foot injury in August of last year and still hasn’t fully recovered. Thankfully, FSU runs a 4-2-5 base defense so linebackers won’t be relied on as much. But the reality still remains: When fully healthy, the group is decent. When they’re not…

Defensive Backs: Buy

The saving grace of what could be a tumultuous defense is the extremely talented and veteran-led secondary. Jalen Ramsey is the returning star who projects to go top 10 in the 2016 NFL Draft while competing for ACC Defensive Player of the Year honors. He and Nate Andrews will be tasked with guiding a young secondary that includes rising stars like Lamarcus Brutus, Derwin James, and Trey Marshall. Ramsey will be put at his natural position of cornerback while Marshall will be moved to the STAR position where he played very will in limited time during 2014. This movement in the defense is ideal because it allows each player to play where they excel most on the field — something that couldn’t be done last year even with guys like P.J. Williams and Ronald Darby. Andrews will most likely be playing the role of a linebacker in some packages, which makes sense because he has all the physical tools to succeed up front and even more so than in pass coverage. There might be some growing pains to begin the year, but this group arguably has the most talent on the team and will be an encouraging aspect of the defense.

Special Teams: Buy

As long as kicker Roberto Aguayo can stay healthy, there’s almost no way the kicking team can experience any sort of dip in production. Aguayo might honestly go down as the best kicker in FSU history if his 2015 season turns out to be even similar to either of his previous years. The only part that is questionable for this unit is the punting. Cason Beatty has definitely improved since his less-than-stellar 2012, increasing his average by nearly three yards-per-punt, but he has still had too many shanked punts for anyone’s liking. No one is expecting Beatty to set the world on fire, but some consistency will go a long way in helping out the Seminoles next season. It’s hard to see a complete regression from him, so this unit gets the “buy” rating.

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