There are five games left in the regular season for the FSU men’s basketball team, and after that, it will participate in the ACC Tournament in an attempt to shock the conference (and most of their fans). The big dance is almost certainly out of the question for the Seminoles and the NIT is currently their best chance at getting any sort of satisfying closure to this season.
They currently stand as a NIT bubble team that needs to win at least three of the last five games to have a shot. Those opponents include Boston College (9-15), No. 2 Virginia (23-1), Miami (16-9), No. 12 Louisville (20-5), and Pittsburgh (17-9). It’s a tall order.
As with any losing-to-mediocre team, fans look to the future as a way of getting excited for better times. Florida State is in a rut right now, having missed the tournament for a likely third year in a row.
This year, the Seminoles have simultaneously managed to both disappoint and impress their fans in almost comical fashion. Florida State topped both in-state rivals, Miami and Florida, but somehow managed to lose to Clemson and Northeastern at the Tuck. Near-misses were losses to both UNC and Duke which came by just a combined 7 points. The team goes from hot to cold with no warm or cool settings in between.
There are obviously bright spots however. The emergence of freshman guard Xavier Rathan-Mayes is the most promising for the team for a lot of reasons. XRM, as he is commonly known, is currently the most dynamic scorer on the team with the ability to score from almost anywhere on the court. The 3-point line is where he struggles a bit, but has been getting better as the season goes on.
Rathan-Mayes not only leads Florida State in scoring, but is on pace to average more assists than any FSU player in over a decade. With Aaron Thomas being ruled ineligible, Rathan-Mayes has had to carry the FSU offense and will be expected to do so again next season.
Xavier Rathan-Mayes leads Florida State in scoring and assists. (Photo by Joe Robbins/Getty Images)
Elsewhere, underclassmen Phil Cofer and Jarquez Smith are beginning to fill in to their roles. Smith, a sophomore, is slowly realizing his position as stretch-4, which includes a very efficient .504 shooting percentage. If he can up his scoring load, he could provide the threat needed to keep teams from solely focusing on the guards. Smith has averaged 13 points-per-game over his last two contests.
Cofer, a freshman, meanwhile has been showing off his athleticism and has been a consistent contributor to the offense. Games against Pittsburgh and Wake Forest in which Cofer was a force inside show what he is truly capable of, and if he can progress along with XRM, the combination could be fun to watch in the years to come.
Though the numbers can be misleading, Florida State has played much better defensively of late as well. FSU has faced three of its four ranked opponents in the latter half of the season and still has two more to go. While the offense hasn’t been consistent, the development of players has and the team is overall more cohesive.
The biggest issue for the Seminoles is that FSU simply doesn’t have the current talent or experience to compete with a loaded ACC. In a league that contains Virginia, Duke, North Carolina, and Louisville, this is to be expected.
Before this year, FSU had not signed a 5-star recruit since Michael Snaer back in 2009. That signing seemed to work out pretty well for the ‘Noles. This year, Florida State has had an exceptional turnaround on the recruiting trail, signing 5-star McDonald’s All-American Dwayne Bacon, two more 4-stars in Terance Mann and Malik Beasley, and a nice addition in 3-star, 7’4″ recruit Jean Marc Koumadje.
Outsiders have noted this trend for the Seminoles and pointed out how this year could realistically end with a top 5 recruiting class. These are the types of classes needed to be able to compete in the ACC.
In fact, FSU in general has made serious strides in establishing a consistent and competitive basketball program. The upgrades to the Tucker Center were a big indication, as well as the grass roots movement calling itself “Pack the Tuck” in an attempt to encourage students to come to the games. While the program itself may have struck out on big recruits like Andrew Wiggins, a sustained success and improved facilities will make head coach Leonard Hamilton’s job that much easier.
Basketball freshmen are not like football freshmen. Due to the small size of teams and general nature of the sport, freshmen can come in and provide an immediate impact, particularly 5-stars. If either Bacon, Mann, or Beasley can come in and carry some of offensive load, FSU could prove to be a serious contender in the ACC. Going into next season, the Seminoles have only one senior leaving and that’s center Kiel Turpin. They bring back all players in the team’s top 5 in minutes per game, and that includes their top 3 leading scorers.
Phil Cofer dunks on Jahlil Okafor during a 2015 game in Tallahassee. (AP Photo)
With all this being said, what can FSU fans reasonably look forward to for their team? An NCAA Tournament appearance next year is a serious possibility. The youth of the team cannot be understated, as fans could potentially see a stretch like the one from 2009-2012 where the team made the tournament in four straight seasons, which included a conference title and a Sweet 16 appearance. Hamilton has a proven track record as a coach and is only eight wins away from being Florida State’s all-time leader in wins and would already own that record had victories not been vacated due to an academic cheating scandal in 2006.
Increased fan support, improved facilities, a respected head coach, improved recruiting, and a mix of veteran and young players would have any fan base excited. Sunshine-pumping is a harmful thing for many programs obviously. But there’s more to this FSU program than meets the eye to the outsider. FSU is building something beautiful, and this could quite possibly be the turning of a corner.
But for now, just hope that the Seminoles can give fans a preview of what is to come next year as they try to close out the 2014-15 season strong.
