The recent announcement by class of 2016 5-star forward Jonathan Isaac to attend Florida State has ramped up the expectations for the Seminoles in the upcoming seasons. Head coach Leonard Hamilton put together a top 10 recruiting class in 2015 and will most likely have another in 2016 if early indications mean anything.
The 2015 players will be joining a Florida State team that returns a talented core from last year who experienced growing pains and fought through a very tough ACC schedule. Unlike many other teams in the ACC, Florida State didn’t really lose anyone instrumental to its success. FSU returns Xavier Rathan-Mayes, its only All-ACC player, and the five players with the most starts from the previous season.
Earlier in the year, the idea was floated around that the Seminoles had a possible NCAA Tournament run in them for next season if everything turned out right. Since then however, various things have occurred to other teams in the ACC and some unexpected changes have taken place.
Departures from teams like Notre Dame, Duke, and Louisville mean that coaches will be breaking in even younger teams than Florida State had last season. The ACC will always have it’s contenders, but that list has considerably narrowed in the recent months.
GREENSBORO, NC – MARCH 11: Head coach Leonard Hamiton talks with Xavier Rathan-Mayes #22 of the Florida State Seminoles against the Clemson Tigers during a second round game of the ACC basketball tournament at Greensboro Coliseum on March 11, 2015 in Greensboro, North Carolina. (Photo by Grant Halverson/Getty Images)
The first truth to acknowledge is that there are, on-paper, better teams than the Seminoles heading into the new season. Virginia, North Carolina, and Duke are universally expected to be better than Florida State next year and that’s not too unexpected.
Virginia lost two of its best players in Justin Anderson and Darion Adkins, but still return Malcolm Brogdon (All-ACC first team), Anthony Gill (All-ACC third team), London Perrantes (All-ACC honorable mention), and Mike Tobey (ACC Sixth Man of the Year). Tony Bennett is too good of a coach and has too much talent for the Cavaliers to fall from the top of the ACC standings next season. They are the top dogs in the conference and look to remain that way for the 2015-2016 season.
North Carolina is an interesting case of a team that should be better next season, but the next few seasons after that may see something different. The NCAA investigation into the school brought up violations that look to seriously harm the program in the coming years and that includes men’s basketball. Nevertheless, Carolina’s only big loss is starter J.P. Tokoto who made an odd decision to enter the NBA Draft (though he was still selected, so maybe not that odd). The Tar Heels were a Sweet 16 team last season and pushed Wisconsin to the brink. They’ll be fine — for now.
during the NCAA Men’s Final Four National Championship at Lucas Oil Stadium on April 6, 2015 in Indianapolis, Indiana.
Duke is the only remaining team where one could say with confidence that it is better than Florida State. The Blue Devils lost a lot in Quinn Cook, Tyus Jones, Jahlil Okafor, and Justise Winslow when the latter three declared for the draft, but Coach Mike Krzyzewski knows how to reload. His 2015 class alone has four 5-star players ready to come in and compete while retaining an underrated Amile Jefferson. More talent plus better coaching equals another formidable ACC opponent.
Those three teams have a clear and distinct advantage over the ‘Noles heading into next season. But what about the rest of the ACC? The conclusion seems to be that aside from the three aforementioned schools, the conference is full of middling and unpredictable teams. Florida State is included in this group along with N.C. State, Miami, and Notre Dame to keep them company.
The Wolfpack are either a team ready to explode or a team that got hot at the right time. It’s hard to tell because their wins last season seem to indicate that they could break through very soon. At certain points last year, they beat all of Duke, Louisville, and North Carolina. They then went into the tournament and beat both LSU and top-seed Villanova before falling in the Sweet 16 to the Cardinals.
Next season looked promising for the Wolfpack faithful, but then it was revealed that their leading scorer Trevor Lacey would be declaring for the NBA Draft. It was very unexpected and it leaves N.C. State without one of its most dynamic playmakers. Its next leading scorer Ralston Turner was a redshirt senior as well, so now the Wolfpack must rely on Anthony Barber and Abdul-Malik Abu to carry the load. That’s not a bad situation, but it makes one wonder if N.C. State can repeat its success from last year in any meaningful way.
SYRACUSE, NY – JANUARY 24: The Miami Hurricanes players meet on the court seconds before their win over Syracuse Orange on January 24, 2015 at The Carrier Dome in Syracuse, New York. Miami defeated Syracuse 66-62. (Photo by Brett Carlsen/Getty Images)
As much as ‘Noles fans don’t want to hear it, the Miami Hurricanes will also be competitive in the ACC next year. The Hurricanes return four of their top five scorers/starters and were regarded as one of the bigger NCAA Tournament snubs last season.
They made it all the way to the NIT championship before falling to Stanford by two points in overtime. However, the Hurricanes are suffering from a lack of depth down low at the center and power forward positions. None of the current big men on the bench have shown the skill and durability that starter Tonye Jekiri has, meaning they will have to find someway to take the load off him in the paint.
Notre Dame is a team that make analysts waffle from a 20-win team to a Sweet 16 Cinderella depending on how much faith is put into Mike Brey and his ability to reload. The Fighting Irish have to replace first team All-ACC player Jerian Grant, who was a serious candidate for Player of the Year. They also have to find someone to fill in for underrated leader Pat Connaughton, who was as underrated as a third team All-ACC player can be.
Those two guys were the main reasons that Notre Dame reached in the Elite 8 last season and it is hard to understate just how valuable they both were. A nice core of Zach Auguste, Demetrius Jackson, and Steve Vasturia should help them get through growing pains, but don’t buy them at too high a price.
SYRACUSE, NY – MARCH 29: Mangok Mathiang #12 of the Louisville Cardinals reacts with teammate Quentin Snider #2 in the first half of the game ams during the East Regional Final of the 2015 NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament at Carrier Dome on March 29, 2015 in Syracuse, New York. (Photo by Maddie Meyer/Getty Images)
Many reading this piece will probably contest leaving out Rick Pitino and Louisville. But after looking at what it returns and how much it loses, it’s very hard to put Louisville as a serious contender for the ACC. The Cardinals lost their top four players in Terry Rozier (second team All-ACC), Montrezl Harrell (second team All-ACC), Wayne Blackshear, and Chris Jones.
Of their five leading scorers from last season, the only one who returns is Quentin Snider, a sophomore guard who averaged just over 4 points-per-game. Obviously, it’s Pitino and he has a pretty talented recruiting class coming in, but it’s not a better outlook than any of the six teams mentioned above.
The rest of the ACC doesn’t really have much optimism concerning next year. Some teams like Georgia Tech simply don’t have the talent to compete and others like Boston College lose too much experience with too little promise on the bench to replace them. Because of these factors, these simply aren’t on the list of possible contenders.
The Seminoles have definitely moved up in the ACC world considering how up and down last year’s team was. They were never able to break out of the bottom half of the conference with so many talented programs in the mix. But next year looks like it could honestly be a bit of a downturn for the ACC in general.
Florida State can capitalize on this slight downturn and could push for a conference title in a year where it is expected to improve. There’s no guarantee that FSU can get past the heavyweights on top of the throne, but the natural ebb and flow of the conference means it has a much better chance to do so.
The only teams from the conference who recruited better in 2015 were Duke and arguably Louisville. The next closest was Syracuse, but the circumstances surrounding its program and Jim Boeheim’s suspension gives way too much doubt to put the Orange on the list of contenders. Florida State has “won” the battle on recruiting grounds. Now it’s time to put the results on the court.
