Florida State running back Dalvin Cook ran angry in Saturday’s 59-16 season-opening victory over Texas State. Perhaps it was the cloud surrounding his court case in which he was found not guilty, but still scrutinized in the media for things he did as a teenager. Perhaps it was the asterisk that writers had by his name when they weren’t sure if he would participate this season. Perhaps it was the immediate dismissal of him as a Heisman candidate or even potential award winner.
Either way, Cook made sure that his name was brought up when discussing the top performances of Week 1. Against an admittedly poor Texas State defense, he dashed, cut, and juked his way to 169 total yards on 20 touches with two touchdowns. His average yards-per-carry of 8.2 was the third highest of his career. By all measures, Cook had an exceptional game against the Bobcats for a great opening to his 2015 season.
As of right now, he is currently sixth nationally in rushing yards. Obviously the fact that we’ve only had one week of football is relevant, and strength of competition is something that needs to be factors in as well.
But this type of performance is not unusual for Cook. He has started in four games during his career and has rushed for over 100 yards in each of them. Two of his notable games (at Louisville and against Florida) came with him splitting carries with the more seasoned Karlos Williams.
Now that he has become FSU’s go-to back, many have mentioned Cook as a legitimate contender for the most prestigious award in college football — the Heisman Trophy.
If this trend of domination continues, that proposal might become a reality. He is currently on one of the most visible and interesting teams in the nation that could climb the rankings if it gets on a win streak.
Great player + gaudy stats + nationally recognized team is a proven formula for raking in the awards at the end of the year. The Heisman however, requires some truly spectacular accomplishments in order for someone to bring it home with them after the ceremony. So what will Dalvin Cook have to do if he wants to raise the trophy at the end of the regular season?
TALLAHASSEE, FL – SEPTEMBER 5: Runningback Dalvin Cook #4 of the Florida State Seminoles on a running play during the game against the Texas State Bobcats at Doak Campbell Stadium on Bobby Bowden Field on September 5, 2015 in Tallahassee, Florida. The 10th ranked Seminoles defeated Texas State 59 to 16. (Photo by Don Juan Moore/Getty Images)
Stats
Dalvin Cook will quite simply have to have one of the best years for an FSU running back ever. Warrick Dunn is generally regarded as the greatest to ever tote the rock for the Seminoles, and the closest he ever came to winning the Heisman was fifth place as a senior in 1996. That year, he had 219 plays for 1,535 yards and 14 touchdowns.
With modern day offenses, the threshold is constantly rising for what a running back must produce to gain serious consideration for the Heisman trophy. The last running back to win it was Mark Ingram back in 2009 — a year universally considered as one of the weakest Heisman classes of all-time. Odds are already against Cook.
Giving a solid baseline will be the first step, but this is also subject to change because of the biggest factor that he can’t control: his competition. Cook could run for over 2,000 yards this year but if someone else runs for 2,500, he’ll lose. What can instead be given is a stat line that will put him in the top 5 or so players regardless of whatever competition he might face. The players will fluctuate but they are also much more likely to be in a certain range in any given year. For Cook to be put in this position, his stats might have to look something like this: 250 carries, 1,750 yards, 30 receptions, 300 yards, 20 total touchdowns.
This would indeed be a bit of a task for Cook to try and achieve in 2015. A young offensive line with a new quarterback adjusting to a system might detract from his ability to garner such numbers if defenses are focused on stopping the run. This also means that other talented running backs like Mario Pender will be getting carries to lighten the load for a workhorse like Cook.
But there are also considerations going in his favor. The first is to realize that these numbers are definitely in reason when looking at how his career has gone so far. He only got serious reps in around eight games last year, and was still able to top 1,000 yards on the ground, making him the first FSU freshman to do so.
The numbers above translate to 7 yards-per-carry and around 134 rushing yards-per-game with 2.3 receptions and 23 receiving yards as well. The yards-per-carry number was achieved or exceeded by 13 players last year, including names like Royce Freeman, Tevin Coleman, Toddy Gurley, and Nick Chubb. Dalvin Cook is often grouped with the top running backs in the country and there seems to be no reason that he can’t conceivably achieve this statistical threshold.
Secondly, Florida State does not face many tough run defenses this year. Only three of FSU’s 12 scheduled opponents ranked in the top 25 of S&P’s run defenses last year. Those three? Clemson, Louisville, and Florida. Here were Dalvin’s numbers in those games:
| Opponent | CAR + REC | YDS | YPC | TD |
| Clemson | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
| Louisville | 13 | 150 | 12.2 | 2 |
| Florida | 26 | 172 | 6.0 | 0 |
He hadn’t yet emerged in the Clemson game obviously. Syracuse was ranked 26th as well, just outside the parameters chosen for review. Cook had 25 touches for 139 yards, 5.3 yards-per-carry, and a touchdown in that game. Each team mentioned above also lost at least one of their best defensive linemen to the draft or graduation heading into 2015. If Cook didn’t have trouble with them last year, is it in any way likely that he has it this year?
It should be noted that this article is operating on the assumption of FSU having a 13-game regular season and thus going to an ACC Championship. It was in this game last year that he had a career-high in rushing and total yards with 177 yards and 220 respectively. However, this might not actually occur if things don’t fall in place for FSU. If this were to happen, Dalvin Cook’s numbers become much more difficult.
CHARLOTTE, NC – DECEMBER 06: Dalvin Cook #4 of the Florida State Seminoles runs the ball against the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets in the 3rd quarter during the ACC Championship game on December 6, 2014 in Charlotte, North Carolina. (Photo by Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images)
Big game performances
Almost every Heisman winner has a notable moment or game where people finally begin to understand the hype surrounding them. Each of FSU’s previous three winners are no different and Cook will certainly have to claim one of his own if he wants to be taken seriously as a contender. Is that possible with the schedule this year?
As of now, there seems to be around four games that could help vault him to the forefront of the discussion, should he do as well as hoped. All four are within a 5-game span: Miami, Louisville, Georgia Tech, and Clemson. These games are chosen because they all have the potential to include a top 10 or 15 Florida State team facing off against a ranked opponent. Games including these aspects make them prime dates for someone like Cook to make a statement for the committee and the nation in general.
Miami has the added bonus of being a rival and being an early match-up, which decreases the likelihood that it’ll have a loss before the two teams meet. If the Hurricanes can come in at 4-0, they’ll likely be ranked due to back-to-back wins over Nebraska and Cincinnati. It won’t be a very high ranking, but it’ll hopefully get them there.
Louisville was a great match-up last year and was also the game where Cook unveiled to FSU fans what exactly he could do for the team. While they might not be ranked at 4-1 because of the early loss to Auburn, the Cardinals could still be viewed as a decent opponent visiting Doak Campbell Stadium in an attempt to knock off the reigning conference champions.
Georgia Tech is currently ranked 15th in the AP Poll and will face both Notre Dame and Clemson before it hosts the Seminoles on October 24th in a rematch of last year’s closely contested ACC Championship. A win over either team with zero or only one loss coming into the FSU game would definitely be enough to keep Tech in the top 25 if not top 15.
Clemson is the final option and would be the most impactful game of all if everything goes smoothly for both teams heading into Death Valley on November 7th. Last year’s narrow escape in overtime weighs heavily on the Tigers’ minds — they’ll be coming at FSU with everything they’ve got. A Dalvin Cook-led victory against a ranked Clemson team would almost certainly guarantee him the type of attention that any potential Heisman winner needs.
Dalvin Cook rushed for 110 yards in last year’s 42-31 win over Louisville. (Jamie Rhodes/USA Today)
Health
Health is still the most volatile and important aspect of the current discussion. They might not be totally fair or predictable but injuries are something that Cook will have to avoid if he wants to stay in the contention for the Heisman. He doesn’t have a history of getting injured, but that won’t mean much if he goes down for whatever reason.
One way to lower his chances of sustaining such an injury would be balancing his carries out with the other FSU backs. Cook got 19 carries in the first game and that was with him being taken out before the fourth quarter started. Other games are going to be more competitive and he will likely get more touches, though teams like Chattanooga and Syracuse will also probably see a reduced amount of carries from him.
Assuming he gets 19 carries per game (not unrealistic at all), that puts him around 247 on the season, close to what was proposed in the stat section. His career-high was 31 against a helpless Georgia Tech defense, and he didn’t seem too rattled during that game considering he was named MVP in it.
His health isn’t just important for his own award chasing — it’s integral to Florida State’s success as a whole. Pender and others are great and would likely rack up accolades as well if they were starting, that’s certainly true. But at the same time, they don’t have the unreal vision that Cook does at this point.
He doesn’t just have the speed and cutting ability required to be a star at the college level, he has the mental game down pat as well. Cook being out for an extended period of time would likely cause this team to lose a game or two depending on the stretch of opponents. For both the sake of the team and himself, Cook will need to stay healthy and avoid an untimely injury that could derail both quests.
One final question that hasn’t been answered is this: How likely is it that Cook actually is one of the Heisman finalists at the end of the year? Quite honestly, not very.
We all know that he’s a special talent who can put an offense on his back when needed. But that’s not enough to win or even be named a contender for the Heisman. Right now, there are arguably three running backs who have a better chance than him and they are Ohio State’s Ezekiel Elliot, Oregon’s Royce Freeman, and Nick Chubb of Georgia.
In order for Dalvin Cook to seriously contend for the award, he will have to beat out the similar competition. Whether or not he’ll be able to do that will have to be seen throughout the course of the season.
